Experts Discuss Thin Film's Future

Scroll down to find out what our expert speakers think about the future of thin film. Join us at the 2nd Thin Film Solar Summit and meet the industry leaders who will be addressing the industry's key issues and opportunities...

"The Thin Film Solar Summit EU in Berlin is coming to right time to give a push for a good solar year 2010”

Dr.Karl-Heinz Stegemann, VP Technology, Signet Solar

"Prices for crystalline silicon panels have plunged over the last year or so, making it even more challenging for thin film producers to scale up. I am excited to exchange views with industry participants in the 2nd Thin Film Solar Summit EU"    Andreas Resch, VP Investment Banking, Citi

" The 2nd Thin Film Solar Summit is the most important event to see how thin-film will become competitive for every investor"

Fumihiro Tanikawa, Technical Manager Solar Energy Dept. , Kaneka Belgium N.V.

"This is a crucial year for all thin film technologies to cement the market gains made over the past few years. The 2nd Thin Film Solar Summit provides an excellent venue to both network and learn from colleagues, along with discussing the strategies for future success"

Paula Mints, Director-Energy Practice/Principal Analyst- PV Services Program, Navigant Consulting

Contents:

1.Interview with Cristian Cavazzuti and Lynn Sha

2.Interview with Dr.Karl-Heinz Stegemann

Interview with Cristian Cavazzuti and Lynn Sha

It is believed that the thin film market share will continue to grow in the coming years. However, which will be the winning approach? In the run up to the 2nd Thin Film Solar Summit Europe taking place in March 17-18 in Berlin , Pramac Swiss and QS Solar have exchanged views on the industry’s future with Thin Film Today.

•  Cristian Cavazzuti ( CC ), General Manger of Pramac Swiss

•  Lynn Sha ( LS ), General Manager at QS solar

•  Thin Film Today ( TFT )

TFT: Where do you see the thin film industry in the next 5 years?

CC: There will be 2 very separated and distinguished markets:

•  The “low cost thin film”: aimed at large ground mounted installations in some areas that will still allow doing 20-50 MW installations (i.e. China, India, USA, developing countries).

•  The “high quality”: for BAPV and BIPV. I believe that in BAPV and BIPV, the thin film can reach 50% of the market, being the other 50% for high efficiency mono/poli.

LS: We believe thin film will continue to grow because of its absolute cost advantages. Today this industry heavily relies on FIT or other subsidies. Due to the high FIT in certain countries, people focus too much on bankability, and forget to really learn and understand thin film technologies. What matters at the end of day is: USD/watt and USD/kw/h. Government schemes will continue to fall as there is no reason for the government to invest so much money every year. Looking at Spain and the recent news concerning cuts in Germany’s FIT means that it is time to understand what the real bottle neck of this industry is: the high cost factor. Our goal at QS Solar is to produce a high quality panel at the most affordable price. We believe that thin film’s market share will continue to grow.

TFT: Where do you see the biggest market potential for thin film?

CC: We have to segment among the several thin films available as not all of them are the same. There is a cheap CdTe from First Solar or a low efficiency/low quality Amorphous from some manufacturers; there is also the high end product like the Micromorph ® thin film form Pramac Swiss. Within advanced/mature markets, I see the biggest market potential for products like ours in BAPV and BIPV. Feed in tariffs and some governments have started to discourage ground mounted systems and are pushing into building application and self consumption. In this segment, thin films perform better than crystalline and efficiency is not always the issue as sometimes spaces are large enough to install a system for self consumption. This is an approach valid only in some regions such as Germany, Italy, France, US, Spain, North Europe, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, but not for India, China, Africa, etc.

LS: We believe USA, China and  India will become the biggest markets for thin film due to its lower degradation characteristic under high temperatures; however, following the global trend of FIT reduction, Europe will also be an important market.

TFT: What are the main challenges still remaining for the industry?

CC: To increase the scale in order to achieve lower costs, to optimise the BOS, and to educate the clients on the advantages of thin films

LS: The total cost of module plus the BOS is still too high and that the industry is too dependent

TFT: How you and your company are positioning yourself for the next year and what goals you are setting yourself?

CC: We are a high end, highly technological and high quality & reliability Swiss made module manufacturer. Our products offer high value and an added service level. We are targeting the high end market, not the customer that wants the lowest initial investment but the client that is looking at a durable and reliable product; the one that is more interested in knowing how much electricity they can produce over 30-35 years of life of the module, not how much they can save per watt today.

LS: We aim to develop popularized, non-subsidy PV cells and PV generating projects that most countries and people can afford to use. Our objective is to make the on-grid electricity price of PV generating the same as thermal power plant in 3 to 5 years. To achieve this, our first aim is to produce good quality PV modules with the lowest cost worldwide. QS Solar plans to drive the cost amorphous silicon thin-film solar down to USD0.50/w with in three years. At the same time, we will focus on the construction of a 1MW PV power plant, driving the constructions costs down to $1.5-1.6 million in two years. By fulfilling these two objectives, the on-grid electricity price per Kw/h could reach RMB 0.50, which is about USD 0.08. When the PV power plant reaches the same price as thermal power plant, the solar industry will develop explosively and human beings will face a brand new era of popularization of the solar energy application.

Cristian Cavazzuti and Lynn Sha will be participating in the 2nd Thin Film Solar Summit EU this March 17-18 in Berlin. Alongside with Ilias Garidis, COO at Heliosphera they will be taking part in a panel session that will address thin film’s future moves and new opportunities.

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Interview with Dr.Karl-Heinz Stegemann

Dr.Karl-Heinz Stegemann, VP Technology at Signet Solar, predicts that thin film will reach grid parity already by 2013 in Southern Europe . He believes that within the next two years the industry will experience consolidation and concentration of thin film silicon turnkey lines.

Dr.Stegemann has an extensive background in thin films and holds various patents in deposition technologies, special oxidation, SOI and DRAM memory cells. He currently serves as the chair for R&D project approval committee at the European Union. He believes that the areas in which thin film holds the biggest market potential are “solar farms and autonomic systems in hot climate zones”. However, Dr.Karl-Heinz points out that some of the main challenges to be overcome are: efficiency enhancement for aSi/µSi-tandem cells and achieving more than 10% efficiency levels at a production cost of less than 1€ per Wp .

Dr. Karl-Heinz will be speaking about efficiency enhancement and cost reduction at the 2nd Thin Film Solar Summit Europe on the 17-18 th of March in Berlin. More than 25 leading experts will come together to address the critical challenges that the thin film industry faces. Speakers include Kaneka, Wurth Solar, SCHOTT Solar, BOSCH, Global Solar, Oerlikon, Applied materials, and Komax Solar.

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